NHL Playoffs betting – Round 2 long shots, props and more

That confetti you just watched float by wasn’t for a parade. In fact, it was quite the opposite: Those were ripped up Stanley Cup futures bets for the Boston Bruins, rendered immaterial after their Game 7 loss to the Florida Panthers in the opening round.

After a regular season in which they set new records for wins and points, the Bruins were heavy playoff favorites. According to BetMGM, the Bruins had 28% of all Stanley Cup championship wagers and a whopping 43% of the handle. They weren’t alone. The next two highest handles were for the New York Rangers (14%) and the Colorado Avalanche (10%). They’re both now watching the playoffs from home, too.

BetMGM reports that the Bruins accounted for nearly half the bets made on the Eastern Conference champions. The Avalanche accounted for over 27% of the bets made for the Western Conference champion. All of this is to say the betting landscape has significantly changed for the playoffs. So as the NHL postseason hits the second round, here’s a look at some plays, props and long shots:

Matthew Tkachuk to lead in points vs. Toronto (+350)

The Florida Panthers really have something in the tandem of Tkachuk and forward Sam Bennett, who powered their best lines in the Cats’ upset win over the Boston Bruins.

Tkachuk is having himself a heck of a postseason, with 11 points in seven games. He’ll relish the spotlight as the Panthers are once again cast as underdogs against the Leafs. He’s got the second-lowest odds in this category behind Mitchell Marner of Toronto (+250).

Most Stanley Cup playoffs prognostication boils down to “what would be the most hilarious way for the Maple Leafs to be eliminated?” Winning their first playoff series since 2004 and then getting upset by the team that was kind enough to clear the Boston Bruins off the board would qualify.

But seriously: The Cats eliminated the Bruins in seven thanks to dominant performances by any lines featuring Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Bennett, a tenacious forecheck and a complete lack of intimidation by their opponent. If they get enough goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky or Alex Lyon, they’ll push the Leafs to seven games … or eliminate them outright. Because the most confusing finish for Toronto would be a euphoric series win followed by a hasty second-round exit. Which, come to think of it, is how things went for the Panthers last season.

Edmonton vs. Vegas over 38.5 goals (-110)

The Edmonton Oilers and Los Angeles Kings combined for 45 goals in their six-game first-round series. Let that be a cautionary tale: Even when opponents have the best intentions of playing quality defense against the Oilers — and the Kings were second in the regular season in expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 — goal-scoring just gets cuckoo bananas when facing Edmonton.

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl will get their goals, as will the rest of this deep offensive lineup. The Knights will get their goals, too, against Edmonton’s porous goaltending.

Leon Draisaitl to score the most goals vs. Vegas (+350)

As expected, everyone is leaping on Connor McDavid (+300) to lead this series in points, which is understandable when you have someone that posted 153 of them in the regular season. But Draisaitl outscored McDavid by a point in the first round and was a force at 5-on-5. He had a higher expected goals and shot attempts per 60 minutes than McDavid. I think you have to sprinkle some at plus money.

The Stars were 2-0-1 against the Kraken in the regular season but Seattle had the better 5-on-5 play in each of the games. But after watching their respective opening round series, I’m confident that Dallas is going to put away the Kraken and do it before having to go seven games.

Colorado was a one-line team coming apart at the seams. In hindsight, it’s no surprise the Kraken upset them, given their depth; it was a surprise they upset them given their goaltending. If I’m going to trust one goalie to repeat, or improve on, their first-round performance, it’s going to be Jake Oettinger, not Philipp Grubauer. Plus, the Stars are deeper at forward than were the Avalanche, especially now that Joe Pavekski is back. Throw in home ice, and the Stars win this in five or six.

Jake Oettinger to win Conn Smythe +1500

I’ve long considered the Dallas Stars to be a solid mid-range play for the Stanley Cup, and not just because coach Pete DeBoer has taken two teams to the Final in his first season behind their benches. They have loads of depth, some tremendous offensive players and they have Oettinger. He was a difference-maker in their series, with a .929 save percentage and a shutout over the Minnesota Wild. The Stars should have a few skaters in the MVP conversation if they win the Cup, but “Otter” could get the majority of the credit as a clutch postseason goalie – a reputation he started to forge last postseason.

I watched all of the Carolina Hurricanes’ series against the Islanders and the Devils’ series against the Rangers. The prediction models we’ve seen have this as the closest series of the second round, between two teams that love to possess the puck. The difference here for the Devils is their scoring depth vs. the Hurricanes’ lack of it, especially due to injury. They have many players who can grind out goals in a tight playoff series. It may take them a couple of games to adjust to the difference between Carolina and the Rangers – i.e. going from the hunter to hunted – but they will.

Akira Schmid to win Conn Smythe +2000

One of the most intriguing longshots on the board. He entered the New Jersey Devils’ first-round series against the New York Rangers in Game 3 and won four of five starts. Two of them were shutouts, including their Game 7 elimination win. Right now, he’s got the numbers and narrative. Please recall 17 years ago when rookie Cam Ward replaced the Carolina Hurricanes’ starter early in the playoffs and then captured the Conn when they won the Cup in 2006. Schmid also has something else: a team playing lights-out defensive hockey in their wins in front of him.

Personally, I don’t think they get by the Devils. But if they do, the Hurricanes have the defensive prowess and the goaltending to hang with either the Leafs or the Panthers on the other side of the bracket. It’s just a matter of scaring up enough offense. They were actually third in expected goals per 60 minutes in the first round against the Islanders. They have the third longest odds to win a conference title. They’re not a bad longshot.