Stanley Cup Final Game 5 – Betting picks for Panthers-Golden Knights

The Vegas Golden Knights will try to close out the Florida Panthers in Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final on Tuesday night.

Florida is trying to become just the second team in NHL history to rally from a 3-1 series deficit (or worse) to win the Stanley Cup. The 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs came back from a 3-0 hole to defeat the Detroit Red Wings for the Cup.

The Panthers are using their opening-round victory against the Boston Bruins as a rallying cry, as they came back from 3-1 down to win in seven games.

But as of Tuesday morning, the Golden Knights were a -190 favorite on the money line.

Here are some wagers I like for Game 5 in Las Vegas (8 p.m. ET).

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Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Stanley Cup Final Game 5:
Panthers (+900) at Golden Knights (-1600)

Puck line: Panthers +1.5 (-170), Golden Knights -1.5 (+143)
Money line: Panthers (+158), Golden Knights (-190)
Total goals: 5.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Favorite bets

Golden Knights puck line -1.5 (+143)

Vegas is 8-3 at home in the playoffs. In those eight victories, the Knights have covered the puck line five times, including twice in this series against the Panthers. Florida has yet to win in Vegas during the franchise’s six years of existence. While the series tightened up in the past two games, the conditions facing the Panthers in Game 5 could tip this thing into a multiple-goal win for Vegas.

Keep in mind this would buck a trend. Teams playing at home up 3-1 in the Stanley Cup Final are just 4-7 in the past 11 games, dating back to 1994. Five of the past six games were decided by one goal. So tread lightly.

Sam Bennett over 3.5 shots (+108)

Whether or not Matthew Tkachuk plays, Bennett is going to be tasked with shooting the puck more on the Panthers’ top line. He leads all Florida players in shot attempts per 60 minutes at five-on-five on the road (17.9). He had four shots in Game 2 and three shots in Game 1 at Vegas.

Panthers under 2.5 goals (-121)

The action is tilted to the over on this bet, which is probably indicative of people thinking Florida is going to play desperate hockey and the Golden Knights are going to lose their wits with the Cup in the building. The fact is that the Panthers have been limited to two goals in every game of this series, save for Game 3, in which they needed overtime to get to three goals. The Golden Knights’ defense and a stone-cold Adin Hill keep the Florida offense in check again.

Reilly Smith to score a point (+102)

Smith has five points in 11 home playoff games for Vegas, including a goal in Game 1 against Florida. He leads the team with 10.8 shots on goal per 60 minutes. His line with Michael Amadio and William Karlsson had a strong Game 4. The original Golden Misfit could factor into Vegas’ closeout game.