2023 U.S. Open Championship: Expert picks and betting tips

The 2023 U.S. Open tees off on Thursday as 156 golfers compete at the 123 edition of the event from Los Angeles Country Club. The tournament is headlined by betting favorite Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm and defending champion Matthew Fitzpatrick. PGA Championship winner Brooks Koepka is also in the mix, looking to win his sixth major.

Where is the betting value? Will the favorites prevail? Our golf and betting experts break down everything thing you need to know to bet the 2023 U.S. Open Championship.

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Experts’ picks to win | Betting value picks to win | Notable golfers odds | Props and more

Expert picks

Matt Barrie, ESPN
Winner: Viktor Hovland

His game has been in top form at the biggest tournaments this year. A winner at the Memorial. A runner-up at the PGA Championship, T-7 at the Masters and T-3 at the Players. This week, Hovland finally finishes and gets his first major title.

Tory Barron, ESPN.com
Winner: Brooks Koepka

A bigger person would refrain from reminding you they correctly predicted Brooksy winning his fifth major ahead of Oak Hill. But I lean petty, so no such luck. I’m sticking with “Big Game Brooks” again this week. Koepka will bring his momentum, swagger and otherworldly ballstriking to Los Angeles Country Club and run it back to 2018 — when he became only the fifth player to win the U.S. Open and PGA Championship in the same year.

Elizabeth Baugh, ESPN.com
Winner: Jordan Spieth

Spieth and his theatrics on a Los Angeles golf course? A perfect fit. He arrives having fared T-6 or better in six of his past 12 starts. The course will favor players with an inventive approach, much like Augusta National, where Spieth has been known to thrive.

Michael Eaves, ESPN
Winner: Scottie Scheffler

Based on the way he has played tee-to-green, Scheffler should have two or three more wins this year. The only thing preventing more W’s has been too many birdie putts burning edges. But at a venue and an event where some pars will feel like a birdie and a half, his putter should be more than enough to win this week.

Peter Lawrence-Riddell, ESPN.com
Winner: Scottie Scheffler

He finished T-2 last year at The Country Club, just one shot behind Matt Fitzpatrick after finishing T-7 in 2021 at Torrey Pines. Scheffler just feels like the type of player who is going to win golf’s toughest test once or twice in his career.

Andy North, ESPN
Winner: Max Homa

It could be Homa’s time. LACC is a great second-shot course, which will favor the Cal grad’s style of play.

Mark Schlabach, ESPN.com
Winner: Scottie Scheffler

Compared to a year ago, it’s been a quiet summer for Scheffler, even though he is the world No. 1 golfer again. He hasn’t won since he claimed The Players in mid-March, a drought of more than — gasp! — three months. But he has been a model of consistency, finishing in the top 12 in each of his past 16 starts and in the top five in each of the past four. He tied for 10th at the Masters and for second at the PGA Championship. He did all of that with a relatively cold putter. Winning at LACC is going to require some short-game magic, and few players are creative or as bold as Scheffler around the greens.

Marty Smith, ESPN
Winner: Viktor Hovland

Brooks Koepka is on a Major heater, and he’ll be in the hunt again on Sunday. But it’s Hovland’s time. The Norwegian golfer is overdue to win a major championship, and a heightened focus on more conservative course management this year has yielded tremendous results, including a victory at Memorial and T-2 at the PGA Championship. Oak Hill gave some guys fits. And Hovland said Memorial plays harder than many major championship courses. Hollywood? Shoot. L.A. will be Hovland-wood come Sunday evening.

Curtis Strange, ESPN
Winner: Viktor Hovland

Hovland is a great striker of the ball. He is sixth in driving and 10th in greens in regulation. Over his past three starts, he placed second, finished 15th and won the Memorial. He is hungry for more.

Paolo Uggetti, ESPN.com
Winner: Jordan Spieth

There’s something about unique golf courses like LACC that, at least in my mind, keep drawing me back to one of the most unique golfers in the game. Spieth’s driving is much improved, and his ability to get creative on approaches and especially around the green should bode well around this course. He has been trending in a positive direction, with a close result at Harbor Town, and this feels like a U.S. Open uniquely suited for him and his game.

Scott Van Pelt, ESPN
Winner: Victor Hovland

I am sure this will be a popular choice. Hovland is getting closer all the time in majors. He just won the Memorial. And he is a ballstriking genius. He’s going to be a major champion very soon. Maybe this week.

Betting value picks to win

We look at the betting board and tell you which golfer offers the best chance to cash your ticket. If you agree, just chase that in:

Joe Fortenbaugh, ESPN betting analyst
Winner: Tyrrell Hatton (28-1)

Why he’ll win: Hatton is in tremendous form and has recorded six straight top-20 finishes, including three top-5s. Sign me up. He enters the U.S. Open ranked third on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: total.

Tyler Fulghum, ESPN betting analyst
Winner: Dustin Johnson (28-1)

Why he’ll win: This is good value on a player who has the pedigree to win at this type of event. Johnson has six top-eight finishes at a U.S. Open in his career, including his 2016 victory at Oakmont Country Club. He just won on the LIV Tour in Tulsa, Oklahoma, a month ago, so he appears to be finally reaching his ceiling.

Doug Kezirian, ESPN betting analyst
Winner: Rickie Fowler (50-1)

Why he’ll win: Fowler is having a great season, with top-20 finishes in all but two of his 13 events. Plus, I anticipate long shots to have a better chance, given how much is unknown with Los Angeles Country Club. The wider fairways will assist drives.

Odds of winning the 2023 U.S. Open Championship

Props and more

Our betting experts have more than just bets to win. Here are some props to target for the entire event, from top-10s to made cuts to tournament matchups.

Brooks Koepka top-10 finish (+115)
Anita Marks: Koepka is back to his best form and fitness. He has won the U.S. Open twice before and ranks in the top 15 in every metric in winning after claiming the PGA Championship last month.

Phil Mickelson top-40 finish (+130)
Tyler Fulghum: Southern California golf requires elite touch, feel and creativity around the greens. That sounds like something Mickelson can handle. He has to be riding high after last week’s news of the PGA-LIV-DP World Tour partnership agreement. We’ve seen him excel at a major this year with his second-place finish at The Masters, and despite never winning the U.S. Open, he has a tremendous track record of success at U.S. Open championships.