Fantasy women’s basketball: Is it worth drafting rookies?

The WNBA is a hard league to crack even for the top picks of the draft, which means we must be selective when drafting rookies to our squads.

Since the draft lottery was implemented (2002), lottery picks have average around 18.8 fantasy points per game in their rookie season. Based on our 2023 fantasy projected points for players this season, that would rank 60th.

No. 1 overall picks historically have had good rookie seasons. Since the WNBA began, number one picks have averaged 26.0 fantasy points per game in their rookie season (would rank 35th in our 2023 fantasy projections).

The top overall pick in the 2023 draft Aliyah Boston is projected to have 26.4 fantasy points per game (34th in the league). That is on par with what historic number one picks average.

In recent years, however, the top overall pick has been a hit or miss. Last season, Rhyne Howard was a great addition to anyone’s roster as she averaged 16.2 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1.6 SPG and 2.5 3-pointers per game. But the previous year Charli Collier struggled in her rookie season on her way to 3.4 PPG and 3.6 RPG.

Since 2017, every other year we have seen the top pick either be really productive in their first year or struggle.

Given that Boston is on the Indiana Fever, a team who needs scoring and a dominant post presence I would expect her to get a lot of opportunities to make an impact on both sides of the ball.

I recommend drafting Boston to your team in the later rounds as a role player and someone to sub in for your main forwards/centers when they are not playing or injured.

As for the rest of the lottery picks, Diamond Miller, Maddy Siegrist and Stephanie Soares, I would recommend staying away from drafting them and go with players who have already proven themselves to be productive role players in this league.