When you take a look at the Week 11 board, you’re going to notice multiple low-spread, low-total games. Should we be betting overs in these games, thinking that overtime is more likely in a set-up like that than any other spread/total combination? Should we be betting underdogs moneyline, thinking that the plus money is worth it given how similar the teams are projected? Should we just stay away from these games?
The skeleton key seems to be betting totals. Since 2020, in games that feature a total under 44 with a spread under four points, under tickets cash 64% of the time. That’s a BIG number and a trend we can lean into this weekend. If you’re curious, if we adjust the spread (four points or higher), overs come through 58.2% of the time in these low total games. Unders are boring to watch, but winning bets is exciting.
Thursday 8:15 p.m.
Titans ATS: 7-2
What we know about the Titans: Easy game? Each of Tennessee’s past six games have both seen them cover AND gone under the total.
Packers ATS: 4-6
What we know about the Packers: From 2018-21, the Packers covered just 50% of their games on short rest, a significant disappointment for a team that covered 61.5% of games otherwise. Thursday will be their first short rest spot of this season.
Sunday 1:00 p.m.
Panthers ATS: 4-6
What we know about the Panthers: Over tickets have cashed in six of Carolina’s past seven games with extended rest.
Ravens ATS: 4-4-1
What we know about the Ravens: Under tickets are 5-1 over Baltimore’s past six games.
Bears ATS: 4-5-1
What we know about the Bears: Sportsbooks still can’t catch up to this Justin Fields thing, four straight overs for Da Bears.
Falcons ATS: 6-4
What we know about the Falcons: The Dirty Birds are 5-2 ATS in their past seven games on extended rest, something that will be the case this week after kicking off Week 10 on Thursday night.
Browns ATS: 4-5
What we know about the Browns: The Browns are 1-3 ATS as favorites this season (3-2 when an underdog).
Bills ATS: 4–1
What we know about the Bills: The Bills have lost three straight ATS, but they did manage to snap a six game under streak last week against the Vikings (33-30 loss in OT).
Lions ATS: 5-4
What we know about the Lions: In four of five Detroit covers this season, the total has gone over the projection.
Giants ATS: 7-2
What we know about the Giants: Unders have come through in back-to-back-to-back-to-back Giant games (they are 3-1 ATS in those games).
Jets ATS: 6-3
What we know about the Jets: Unders have come through in back-to-back-to-back-to-back Jets games (they are 3-1 ATS in those games). Yes, that’s the exact same note as for the Giants.
Patriots ATS: 5-3-1
What we know about the Patriots: The Patriots didn’t cover a game in September but are 5-1 since those early season struggles.
Eagles ATS: 5-4
What we know about the Eagles: Need a parlay filler? The Eagles have not lost a game on a short work week when favored since, Week 16, 2015 (seven straight wins).
Colts ATS: 4-6
What we know about the Colts: With their Week 10 win in Vegas, the Colts improved to 3-2 outright this season as underdogs.
Rams ATS: 2-6-1
What we know about the Rams: After four straight unders, over tickets have cashed in two of three Rams games.
Saints ATS: 3-7
What we know about the Saints: Not only have three straight Saints games gone under the total, those games have seen 40 fewer points scored than expected.
Commanders ATS: 5-4-1
What we know about the Commanders: The Commanders covered their only other game on short rest this season (a thrilling 12-7 win over the Bears in Week 6) and are 5-2 in their past seven games in such spots.
Texans ATS: 4-4-1
What we know about the Texans: Nobody is labeling the Texans a juggernaut, but overs are 5-2 in their past seven home games.
Sunday 4:05 p.m.
Raiders ATS: 3-6
What we know about the Raiders: Overs are 3-0 when the Raiders cover (2-3-1 in the other six games).
Broncos ATS: 3-6
What we know about the Broncos: Unders are 7-2 in Denver’s past nine home games.
Sunday 4:25 p.m.
Cowboys ATS: 6-3
What we know about the Cowboys: Unders started the season 4-1 in Dallas games, but over tickets have come through in three of four games since.
Vikings ATS: 4-4-1
What we know about the Vikings: The Vikings are 10-15 ATS at home over their past 25 (2-2 this season). That may not sound like an awful run, but Minnesota was 30-9-1 ATS in their previous 40 at home.
Bengals ATS: 6-3
What we know about the Bengals: The Bengals have covered six of seven games after opening the season with consecutive 3-point losses as seven-point favorites.
Steelers ATS: 4-4-1
What we know about the Steelers: The Steelers have covered three of their past four games despite not having scored more than 20 points in any of those games.
Sunday 8:20 p.m.
Chiefs ATS: 4-5
What we know about the Chiefs: Over tickets have cashed in seven of Kansas City’s past eight road games (includes a 34-28 win over these Chargers, a game that had a total of 54 points).
Chargers ATS: 6-3
What we know about the Chargers: For the fourth time since the beginning of 2019, the Chargers have failed to cover three straight home games. But they’ve stopped the slide at three games in all of those instances.
Monday 8:15 p.m.
49ers ATS: 4-5
What we know about the 49ers: Overs are 7-4-1 in San Francisco’s past 12 road divisional games (three straight hits).
Cardinals ATS: 5-5
What we know about the Cardinals: The Cardinals are an ugly 3-9 ATS over their past 12 home divisional games (0-2 this season).
Every NFL team’s record vs. the spread and Week 11 early lines
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