2023 fantasy football sleepers, busts – overvalued, undervalued players

Summer is upon us, and the fantasy football grind is just warming up. Now listen: It’s way too early to be drafting in your re-draft leagues. This time of year is dedicated to best ball junkies (hello, I am one) and dynasty nerds, but just like you, we’re elbows deep in analysis to better prepare for our fantasy drafts later this summer.

Most of the dust has settled in terms of offseason player movement, so we have a clearer picture of the fantasy landscape. The only key fantasy position with some landing spots still unresolved is running back, where Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette, Ezekiel Elliott and Kareem Hunt are among the biggest names yet to find new homes. We’ll need to remain nimble as we gather news throughout the next couple of months to finalize our draft boards.

We can cross that bridge when we get there, but here are six players I think are being overrated or underrated whom I’ll be watching closely as the offseason progresses.

Overvalued

Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks: This one bums me out because I liked Walker last year. He ended the season with just over 1,000 yards rushing and nine TDs, finishing as RB17 in fantasy points per game as a rookie. In spite of that production from Walker, the Seahawks used a second-round draft pick on pass-catching UCLA RB Zach Charbonnet, who has impressed early in the offseason. You don’t draft an RB that early to let him ride the pine, so they clearly expect Charbonnet to be a contributor to this offense. They also added a first-round wide receiver in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who will have a role as well. There are a lot of mouths to feed here, so I have Walker just inside of my top 20 at RB.

Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts: After finishing as WR16 in 2021, Pittman’s value took a hit because of inconsistent quarterback play, and that’s putting it politely because it was closer to disgusting than inconsistent, but I’m not here to get hung up on semantics. This “overvalued” designation has nothing to do with Pittman as a player; this is 100% about the situation he finds himself in, yet again, with an inaccurate QB under center. This time he gets this year’s No. 4 overall draft pick, Anthony Richardson, throwing him the ball — which is the one part of Richardson’s game that needs the most work. Pittman can overcome a lot of things with his size, but he’s going to need some serious help to get back to his days as a top-20 WR. Pittman currently is my WR30.

Evan Engram, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars: Engram is another victim of change within the offense. He fit in as a solid pass-catcher for QB Trevor Lawrence last season on his way to a TE7 finish with career highs in receptions (73) and receiving yards (766). There are two downsides here, though. First, he had only four TDs last season, and that was the second-highest total of his career. He just doesn’t get into the end zone; he’s a chain-mover, not a touchdown-maker. Second, Calvin Ridley steps into this offense with a proclamation of 1,400 receiving yards this season, plus there’s Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Travis Etienne Jr. all getting touches here. If Engram isn’t getting into the end zone, then he needs volume, and that won’t be as prevalent this season with Ridley joining this receiving corps as a true WR1. I have Engram as TE10.

Undervalued

Samaje Perine, RB, Denver Broncos: After spending the past 3½ seasons in Cincinnati, Perine finds himself in an interesting position in Denver. He’s technically the backup to 23-year-old Javonte Williams, who is returning from an ACL and LCL tear that happened in Week 4 last season. And while I appreciate coach Sean Payton’s relentless positivity, there’s a good chance that Perine finds himself with a fairly large role early on in this process considering how thin the RB room is. It’s a small sample size, but in his 13 career games with at least 15 touches, Perine has 13 TDs and scored at least 16 fantasy points in seven of those games. I currently have Perine at RB32 — a ranking that is sure to be fluid this summer with the potential for Dalvin Cook rumors or positive news surrounding Williams from training camp.

Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers: Let’s start with this: I guarantee you that Johnson catches a touchdown pass in 2023. If you’ve watched or listened to “Fantasy Focus” this offseason, you’ve heard us talk about the historic 2022 season from Johnson, becoming the first player in NFL history with 85-plus catches and no TDs. That’s not happening again. Between the positive TD regression that analyst Mike Clay preaches and Kenny Pickett making strides under center entering his second season, Johnson is primed to outperform what he did last season, and you can get him at a discount! I have him as a top-20(ish) WR, but his current average draft position is in WR3/flex territory.

Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers: I know, everyone loves Christian Watson. That’s all Mike Clay will talk about, and he’s probably right because he usually is, but let’s not forget about Doubs. Early this offseason, there have been concerns about Jordan Love‘s deep ball — I believe “tight wobblers” was the phrase that Love used when asked about it. This gives rise to the goodness that is Doubs and his slot role. While much of Watson’s value is going to be tied to Love’s deep ball, Doubs’ targets will be safer and more efficient. Yeah, Doubs doesn’t have the upside Watson does, but Watson costs you a fifth-rounder right now and Doubs is free. There’s value in Doubs as a flex floor play in this new Packers offense.